Bitcoin stays confined to $100k–$110k band as realized profit and network activity recede

Bitcoin faces limited upside momentum if the market doesn't get a fresh wave of demand.

Cover art/illustration via CryptoSlate. Image includes combined content which may include AI-generated content.

Bitcoin (BTC) has traded between $100,000 and $110,000 for a seventh consecutive week due to slower profit realization, cooling transfer volume, and a cautious derivatives backdrop, according to a June 26 Glassnode report. 

The report cited the market’s struggles to extend May’s all-time high rally, with the 30-day realized profit gauge peaking in early May, then declining as traders secured the third earnings wave of the cycle.

Realized profit 

The cumulative realized profit for the cycle between 2023 and 2025 now totals $650 billion, already surpassing the entire period between 2020 and 2022. However, the current landscape signals reduced capital rotation. 

Furthermore, on-chain transfer volume fell 32% from the late-May high to $52 billion, and spot exchange turnover sits at $7.7 billion, well below earlier breakout levels.

A cost-basis density heat map shows a dense accumulation zone between $93,000 and $100,000. 

Source: Glassnode.

Bitcoin briefly tested the upper edge of that band during a weekend dip to $99,000 but reclaimed the six-figure threshold as geopolitical tensions eased. 

The report highlighted the cluster as structural support and noted that a decisive break could force holders in that range to capitulate and deepen a correction.

Derivatives reset as leverage sheds conviction

Futures liquidations spiked to $28.6 million for longs and $25.2 million for shorts during the whipsaw, flushing leverage on both sides. Open interest contracted from 360,000 BTC to 334,000 BTC, a 7% slide that cleared speculative excess. 

Annualized funding rates and three-month basis levels continue to decline over a multi-week period, suggesting that traders are hesitant to re-establish aggressive long exposure despite elevated volume.

The report noted that momentum remains constructive while Bitcoin holds above cost-basis support but a breakout requires “a clear pickup in demand, activity, and conviction.” Until those inputs emerge, the price is likely to oscillate within the current $10,000 range.

Bitcoin was trading at $107,630 as of press time, moving towards the cap of the prevailing range.

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