Gemini stock could sink if yield ambitions die under harsh SEC settlement terms

Gemini IPO buyers risk sharp losses if SEC penalty lands near $50 million.

Cover art/illustration via CryptoSlate. Image includes combined content which may include AI-generated content.

The SEC and Gemini, the exchange founded by Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, reached a settlement in principle to resolve the agency’s 2023 lawsuit over the Gemini Earn program, with a court deadline for an update on final papers set for Dec. 15.

Per Reuters, the filing states the agreement would completely resolve the litigation pending Commission approval, which places a clear timetable around a case that has shaped how interest-bearing crypto products are structured in the United States.

Removal of the enforcement overhang may influence Gemini’s product mix and cost of capital, as the firm calibrates offerings against an SEC posture that has emphasized advance notice on technical violations and against clearer authorization regimes taking hold in the European Union and the United Kingdom, according to SEC communications and regulatory consultations.

The Earn case began when the SEC alleged an unregistered offer and sale of securities through a retail lending product that channeled customer assets to Genesis. Per Reuters, Gemini collected up to 4.29 percent of interest as a fee from Genesis payments. The company has since worked through a sequence of state and federal actions.

According to the New York Department of Financial Services, Gemini agreed in February 2024 to return at least $1.1 billion to Earn customers and pay a $37 million penalty for safety and soundness issues. According to the New York Attorney General, Gemini separately agreed to a $50 million settlement that bars it from crypto-lending in New York, while Genesis entered a $2 billion settlement and is barred from operating in the state.

In parallel, the SEC settled with Genesis for $21 million in March 2024. Earn distributions were made in kind and totaled about $2.18 billion to roughly 232,000 users, an uncommon outcome for a retail program that was frozen in early 2023.

Gemini’s capital posture changed

The company went public on Sept. 11 at $28 per share, raising about $425 million for an implied valuation near $3.3 billion.

Lifting the SEC case can feed directly into the company’s cost of equity and strategic pacing, since legal reserves, disclosure language, and go-to-market planning for any yield-adjacent feature will key off the final consent terms.

A settlement that avoids heavy structural restrictions would provide room for growth outside New York through staking-as-a-service under foreign licenses, tokenized cash-equivalent vehicles, or accredited-only notes in the United States, while a higher penalty or a broader injunction would concentrate the business on custody, spot trading, and derivatives access.

The policy environment matters for that calculus. Chair Paul Atkins was sworn in April 2025, and public remarks have emphasized notifying firms about technical issues before actions.

Recent Supreme Court decisions in Jarkesy and Loper Bright reshaped agency process and deference, which increases the incentive to negotiate federal-court resolutions rather than pursue expansive interpretations.

In the EU, MiCA has phased in authorization requirements for crypto-asset service providers and stablecoin issuers, according to ESMA and EBA publications.

In the UK, the FCA and the Bank of England have consulted on conduct, prudential, and custody rules for stablecoin and on scoping regimes for staking and lending, which set parameters for retail yield exposure.

These rulebooks do not guarantee a path for U.S. retail interest products, yet they define where and how similar economics can be delivered under explicit permissions abroad. The New York lending ban tied to Gemini’s settlement remains in place, according to the New York Attorney General, and would govern any state activity regardless of federal developments.

A forward view on economics depends on asset participation, take rates, and policy rates

If Gemini ultimately targets non-New York markets with yield-like features under compliant regimes, participation by 8 to 20 percent of eligible customer assets and a net take rate between 35 and 75 basis points yields a wide range of outcomes.

The span below uses addressable assets between $6 billion and $10 billion and shows modeled run-rate revenue, which compresses if policy rates fall.

Those penalty bands reference prior retail yield and staking actions, including BlockFi’s $100 million global settlement with a $50 million SEC component, Nexo’s $45 million global settlement, and Kraken’s $30 million staking settlement.

On the revenue side, a low case of $6 billion in addressable assets, 8 percent participation, and a 35 basis point net take rate produces about $16.8 million in annualized run-rate. A high case of $10 billion, 20 percent participation, and a 75 basis point take rate produces about $150 million.

A 150 to 300 basis point drop in short-end rates during an easing cycle would cut gross yields and could trim the take rate by 20 to 40 percent, pushing the revenue band closer to $10 million to $120 million. These are sensitivity ranges for context not forecasts.

Legislative movement frames additional upside and constraints

The GENIUS Act federal stablecoin bill advanced through both chambers in mid-2025, which, if enacted and implemented in 2026, would create national standards for reserves, disclosures, and supervision.

That framework may enable regulated wrappers around tokenized cash equivalents, while leaving credit creation and retail yield subject to further rulemaking. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted multi-billion net inflows over recent rolling windows, which supports exchange volumes and custody demand that do not depend on retail interest-bearing products.

If ETF flows and custody assets continue to scale under clear rules in Europe and the UK, Gemini can rely on fee-based businesses while yield options expand in jurisdictions with defined permissions.

The New York actions remain a gating factor. According to the New York Attorney General, Gemini is barred from crypto-lending activities in the state, and the Genesis resolution includes a New York operating ban. Those orders sit alongside the NYDFS settlement, which prioritized restitution and remediation.

Even with a federal settlement, state-level injunctions continue to govern venue decisions, and any national stablecoin law would not by itself preempt such orders without explicit language.

That creates an operational map where yield-adjacent features launch under EU and UK permissions, U.S. participation concentrates in institutional or accredited channels, and New York remains carved out.

Gemini’s IPO creates market data points to watch as the legal overhang clears

Pricing at $28 per share and proceeds of about $425 million give the company capital flexibility, per Reuters.

Quarterly filings will reveal how much of the volume and revenue mix moves into custody, ETF servicing, and derivatives access as the year ends. The Earn settlement also provides a reference for other firms that paused or redesigned yield products after 2022, since consent terms, fee disclosures, and collateral standards tend to migrate across the market once tested in court and by supervisors.

What happens next is procedural. Per Reuters, the parties told the court the settlement would fully resolve the lawsuit, subject to Commission approval.

The Genesis matter has already closed, customer restitution tied to New York oversight has been underway, and federal court decisions have shifted the legal terrain for administrative enforcement.

The outcome for Gemini will set financial and operational constraints for 2026 planning across jurisdictions with more explicit rulebooks and in a U.S. market that is sorting out the contours of yield. The parties are due to update the court by Dec. 15.

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