Traders put 50/50 odds on Bitcoin ending 2025 below $90k amid $3B ETF outflows

The Bitcoin market is undergoing a significant transition, with traders aggressively positioning for a year-end close beneath the $90,000 threshold.

This comes as the flagship digital asset briefly slid to a seven-month low of $89,970 on Nov. 18 before recovering to $91,526 as of press time.

As a result, crypto traders’ sentiment has significantly shifted amid a convergence of structural capital flight and tightening macro conditions.

Options desk pricing Bitcoin below $90,000

The most definitive evidence of this bearish conviction comes from options flows and prediction markets.

Crypto options platform Derive.xyz told CryptoSlate that traders are now pricing a 50% probability that Bitcoin will end the year below $90,000. This is almost in congruence with crypto bettors on Polymarket who believe the top crypto has a 36% of ending the year below $80,000.

Indeed, the bearish positioning is manifesting in aggressive risk mitigation, suggesting that professional desks are now actively betting against previously held bullish consensus.

Derive.xyz noted that Bitcoin’s Implied volatility (IV), both short-term and long-term, has been rising in tandem. For context, BTC’s short-term IV has jumped substantially from 41% to 49% in 2 weeks, while long-term volatility (180-day) has moved almost in lockstep, rising from 46% to 49%.

This implies that traders do not view the current decline as a short-lived blip, but rather as the initial phase of a more prolonged and deeper structural shift in macro conditions and market sentiment.

Derive.xyz added:

“With ongoing concerns about the resilience of the US job market and the probability of a December rate cut slipping to barely above a coin-toss, there’s very little in the macro backdrop giving traders a reason to stay bullish into the close of the year.”

Further confirming this pessimism is the widening of the 30-day put skew, which measures the premium paid for downside protection (puts) relative to the premium for upside exposure (calls).

The skew has plummeted from –2.9% to a highly defensive –5.3%, signaling that traders are not just hedging, but are paying dearly to protect against a significant, sustained drop.

According to the firm, this is the hallmark of a market transitioning into a new, more fearful volatility regime, where risk aversion dominates positioning through year-end.

ETF outflows

This defensive options positioning has been directly catalyzed by the dramatic reversal of flow within the Spot Bitcoin ETF complex.

For much of 2025, these ETFs provided the essential marginal bid, acting as the primary stabilizer by consistently absorbing supply. However, that function has now ceased.

The extent of the institutional retreat is staggering, with Bitcoin ETFs recording gross outflows of nearly $3 billion this month alone ($2.5 billion net), according to SoSoValue data. Notably, this is on course to be the second-largest month for outflows since these products launched in 2024.

Bitcoin ETF Monthly Flows (Source: SoSo Value)

The largest institutional vehicle, BlackRock’s IBIT, typically the market’s strongest structural buyer, has accounted for the majority of these withdrawals.

This sustained selling removes the market’s most reliable absorption mechanism, leading to a crucial consequence where structural demand evaporates, and liquidity thins dramatically.

In this liquidity-thin environment, volatility rises, and what would typically be a shallow dip quickly deepens into a price drawdown.

Moreover, parallel actions across the ecosystem have amplified this absence of a consistent institutional buyer. Major BTC treasury companies have paused their historical accumulation patterns, and in some cases, reduced holdings.

Even MicroStrategy (Strategy), a corporate bastion of bullishness, is showing signs of stress. Their recent 8,178 BTC purchase was small compared to earlier buys and was executed at a price approximately 10% above current levels.

Consequently, 40% of their 649,870 BTC treasury is now in loss, fundamentally weakening the perceived stability of the corporate treasury floor.

Strategy’s Bitcoin Holdings Percentage in Profit and Loss (Source: CryptoQuant)

Therefore, while ETF outflows alone don’t dictate price, their presence in a contracting liquidity environment magnifies every other negative signal.

Long-term holders selling

The current downturn is simultaneously being shaped by selling from an unexpected corner: Long-Term Holders (LTHs).

These holders, historically the most resilient cohort, have collectively moved or sold over 800,000 BTC in the past 30 days. While LTH capitulation typically marks late-stage drawdowns just before a bottom, the dynamic this time appears slightly different.

Ki Young Ju of CryptoQuant has suggested that this movement is less about the wholesale collapse of confidence and more about internal rotation.

According to him, the old whales are strategically offloading their generational holdings to a new, structurally sound class of institutional buyers like sovereign funds, pensions, and multi-asset managers.

He noted that these new institutions generally possess much lower churn rates and significantly longer investment horizons.

So, if true, this rotation could be seen as long-term bullish, essentially transferring supply from early adopters to stable, perpetual investors.

However, the near-term price action of these offloadings remains detrimental.

On-chain metrics highlight this acute selling pressure, with Glassnode data showing that Short-Term Holders (STHs) are realizing losses of approximately $427 million per day, a level not seen since the November 2022 capitulation.

Bitcoin Short Term Holders (Source: Glassnode)

As a result, the supply of STH BTC held at a loss has surged to levels historically consistent with market bottoms.

However, analysts at Swissblock argued that panic-driven “capitulation selling” remains absent, while adding that the current setup clearly signals an “open bottoming window.”

Considering this, this means the period of maximum uncertainty implies that while a floor may be forming, the market has yet to confirm it, and continued selling pressure could easily push the price lower before stabilization.

Macro headwinds tighten the noose.

Ultimately, the most decisive factor driving current behavior is the increasingly hostile global macro backdrop.

Bitcoin is trading less like an idiosyncratic asset and more like a high-beta expression of global risk sentiment. When global liquidity contracts, high-risk assets invariably suffer.

Expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut, which was a key bullish catalyst priced confidently earlier in the year, have essentially collapsed to even odds.

According to CME FedWatch data, traders now assign a 46.6% chance of a rate cut at the Dec. 10 FOMC meeting and a 53.4% probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged.

US Interest Rate Cut Probabilities (Source: CME FedWatch)

This renewed hawkishness has translated directly into tighter liquidity, amplifying risk aversion as rising Treasury yields and fragile equity markets pressure all asset classes. Crypto is caught squarely in this undertow.

With liquidity contracting globally, traders are being forced to hedge risk aggressively into year-end rather than take speculative upside bets.

This macro pressure validates the bearish signals seen in the options market. On-chain momentum indicators place Bitcoin squarely in the Pessimism ‘Correction’ zone around 0.72.

Bitcoin Composite Index. (Source: CryptoQuant)

If this metric continues to fall, technical models point toward a critical correction target of $87,500, a key support level dating back to early 2025.

So, any price stabilization would require a strong reversal in liquidity and sentiment, allowing the market to consolidate between $90,000 and $110,000.

Wintermute stated:

“Until BTC moves back toward the top of its range, market breadth is likely to stay narrow and narratives will remain short-lived.”